Rachel Versus Zenyatta

Ever since this past week's announcement that Rachel Alexandra would not be pointed to the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita, on the pro-ride, there has been a windstorm of complaints and vilification of her owner Jess Jackson.

Jess Jackson was quoted as saying ''he didn't want to risk her', and referred to the synthetic surface as 'plastic'.

Outsiders have questioned his beliefs and rationalization by quickly pointing out that Rachel has already handled the synthetic surfaces, as she won at Keeneland. This is where I started to get involved. Since when does Keeneland or any synthetic surface resemble one another?

Turfway Park is far removed from the Keeneland poly, or Keeneland poly far more radical than the Del Mar Poly, and they were built and designed by the same fella. Hollywood Park is synthetic, but nothing like the Pro-Ride. The Pro-Ride is actually two or three different tracks at different temperatures. So, no, Rachel Alexandra is not tested or proven on all synthetics. She won a race on one type of 'plastic', or on Keeneland's mixture of carpet fibers, jelly cables and wax. Last I looked the Pro-Ride was oil based with rubber to be exact. I didn't see any part of her breeding partial to oil polymers.....

Jackson has been put through the ringer for taking a stance on the welfare of his multi-million dollar purchase and obvious incredible value of the purchase. He is taking care of his horse, and of his commodity. Yet, we vilify him. On the other hand, The Moss's and their trainer John Shirreffs, are applauded for putting the horse, Zenyatta, first and foremost in their plans. I did not hear any lashing out when Shirreffs when Zenyatta was scratched on Derby week due to track conditions. No one attacked, or second guessed when Shirreffs made the call to put the mare back on the plane and send her from Louisville back to her home base at Hollywood. For those of you that don't know, that trip cost close to $10,000 to the owners. $10,000 is $10,000, whether you are rich or not. They did what was best, in their hearts and minds, for Zenyatta. Yes, everyone wanted to see her on Derby weekend, and there was disappointment, but no one chastised Shirreffs for not running.

Why is Jess Jackson being chastised for doing the right thing, in his mind, for his horse?

I say hypocrisy are rampant here. Jackson voiced an opinion shared by many, the Pro-Ride is not a level playing field.

Quickly, the opposition jumps to the fact that Curlin was not the same horse last fall and that was the reason he ran a poor fourth in the Classic, not the Pro-Ride. Do they remember the result? Raven's Pass, a European miler won the Breeders Cup Classic. If you ran the race at Hollywood Park, Raven's Pass, may not have hit the board. Why? The Pro-Ride plays like an off turf course in the heat. Horses labor over it and it is very hard to quicken. Raven's Pass was an off turf specialist and showed it on the Pro-Ride. In my eyes, it takes the brilliant speed out of a horse, for example, like an Rachel Alexandra. She doesn't strike me as being the type of horse that would be at her best on an yielding or off turf course. Do she to you? So, in the biggest race of her career she would have to race on a track that doesn't give her a legit chance on a level playing field or surface. What kind of race would that be? It would be like playing the entire NFL season on grass and then turning around and playing the Super Bowl on a sandy beach.

So, Jess Jackson, is actually taking the high road, and doing the best for his horse. The key here is 'his' horse. Not the handicappers, track, or publicity director's horse, 'his' horse. He paid ten million dollars for her and ran her and beat the boys in the Preakness. He skipped the Belmont and got knocked for not doing the best for horse racing.......Who is judge and jury on that? From track management on down who has actually done anything for the good sport? 99.9% of the time people in this sport have done what's best for them, and not the sport. If anybody is wondering how we got in the hole we are, the aforementioned sentence is the main and sole culprit.

I posed a question to a fan who was doing everything including 'mother$$%&ing*' Jess Jackson for making the absolute statement that 'she would not run in the Breeders Cup'. I asked the fan "would you run your twenty million dollar mare on a questionable surface?", and he replied immediately, "No!". So why the hypocrisy?

You want Jackson to run a horse on a track he doesn't care for, but you, yourself, your investment, you wouldn't? There was no response to my additional statement.

The Pro-Ride may be safe to the naked eye, or what we have been told. (I guess I could should show my bills that includes four surgeries, and miscellaneous charges for injuries incurred over the surface) We don't have catastrophic breakdowns, but horses do show signs of wear and tear over it. It is a tough track to handle, and race over. So, in a showdown, versus the best mare in the country why risk your horse not being able to run at her best and actually be at the mercy of the track?

To me, What's good for Zenyatta isn't necessarily good for Rachel Alexandra. We applaud one set of owners and thumb down at the other, and all they are trying to do is do the right thing for their horses.

Jackson's plan is clear to me. I am confident he is looking at a long 2010 schedule for Rachel Alexandra, which no doubt includes the Dubai World Cup [that's 6 million folks compared to the 3 million in the Breeders Cup Classic, or half of that in the Ladies Classic], and a 2010 Breeders Cup on her home dirt at Churchill Downs. Shoot, that makes sense to me. She could conceivably become the biggest money earner of all time, if she could win both.

Handicappers have little to do with a horse itself, they handicap, run to the window, and after the race they have no more responsibilities. They won or they lost. That's the extent of the liability, for an owner, you live with the horse. Before, during and after. I watched my prized Harlan's Holiday crack a knee back on December 29 at Santa Anita and having to painfully watch him in discomfort in his stall. We feared the worse for him. The next day one handicapper told me, ''your too high on that horse, he's no good'', and that was because he had a bet on him. I would have every right to go up one side and come down the other on the guy, but that's the nature of the beast. Every one who loses a bet thinks they know with no regard to the aftermath or post race condition of the horse. Every one thinks they know, but if in a different capacity they would seriously consider the same course of action they are knocking and vilifying. I guess that is the ultimate definition of hypocrisy.

I applaud Jess Jackson for taking a stand. He doesn't think Pro-ride is best for his horse, just as the connections of Zenyatta didn't think a sloppy, sealed, surface at Churchill Downs wasn't in the best interest for their mare. Yet, Jackson is the bad guy, the Moss's and Shirreffs are the good guys.

Yes the match between the two amazon females and arguably best horses in training would be monumental and great for the sport, but it HAS TO BE, over a level playing surface, a fair surface to both.

If I can give Jess Jackson a tip. Next time, say yes, yes, yes, she is coming, yadda, yadda, yadda, and then a week or two out come up withe cough or bruised foot white lie, and protect your horse. Jess, you wouldn't be the first or last to use that excuse, as we can go down the list of others that have used it before including Hall-Of-Famers [one hall-of-famer specifically wouldn't run if he got a pound over in an handicap]. Ironically, the public and the media applauded those who backed out, regrouped and came back to fight another day in an effort to protect their horse from injury. Again, Ironically, Jess, you are being placed on the rack for telling it like you felt, for saying what was on your mind, telling the truth. I guess the line ''you can't handle the truth'', goes a long way in this business, but it is just my opinion, on the matter. I could be wrong.

Belmont Blog ~ By popular demand the Wiseguys are back.

We have been asked by a couple of too-tree of use about the wiseguys thoughts on this Saturday's Belmont Stakes. Well, we went back to our Chicaga neighborhood and found three handicapping fellars from the old downtown mudbug, trackside. Fritzie, Mikey the Cabbie and Little Joey the Barber.

"I don't kno about use guys,'' said The Cabbie, "but them Zito horses look good to me'', ''might use a couple too-tree of them over dere in them pick trees.''

The Cabbie was referring to Miner's Escape and Brave Victory. ''Ya kno, there ain't no Calabrese horse in here,so, I am little fresh out of the junk dror, you know what I mean?" said Fritzie. No we don't Fritz.

Little Joey, who don't say too many words picked his head up out of the newspaper, ''Hey Fritzie, I just saw your name in the cooler here (referring to the Obituaries)'' with a grin on his face, ''It says 'use guys know Fritzie, he never cashed a bet if it ain't a Calabrese','' Little Joey seemed to take pleasure as he had a gleam in his face like he just stuck an ice pick in Fritzie's side.

"Just because you made, you douchebag, don't mean use got to knock my horse picking,'' responded Fritzie. "just keep reading them coolers you might find uself.''

I was just starting to wonder if I made a bad choice and we would have a bar~room brawl between these wiseguys. So, I changed the subject and asked, ''So, Little Joey, who do you like in the Belmont?". Little Joey knows little about this spring Triple Crown as he was released from Bellevue, like two weeks before. Little Joey is called the barber because he was sent to Bellevue for assault and battery with a mug, brush and shaving razor. He pleaded he was wacko at the time.

'Da Charitable thing look good,'' he responds, ''He got them gym shoes on and he run like theys on an expressway,'' he added. 'You mean he can go wire to wire?'' I asked. ''Something like that, they start from the gate, and then he goes,'' illustrating with his hands.

"I think he going to get tree in front and then goes slow [pause] so they won't catch him'', chimed in Fritzi, who was sipping on a pop. "but he ain't no Calabrese, strunz,'' antagonized Little Joey, who stands six foot four and was a made man in the old 'gumba' club beofre going Barber of Seville.

"What about Mine That Bird?" I asked. "Mind that Baird, he good and he goes real good late, but ya know, he just ain't for me, like da Italian sammich without salami, capish?'' said The Cabbie.

''That Calvin Borail he likes that wood like dem woodchuckers,'' added Fritzie. "them horses run for Borail as fast as them sliders give you da runs,'' he added.

"You 'guys don't like Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy or Dunkirk at all?'' I asked. 'They no more than a coop two-tree races away from being nothin'', said Little Joey in that thick Chicago slang. I was afraid to ask for an explanation of what he meant, it sounded tough.

''That Dunkirk he ran like a ghost in the Derby'', said Fritzie, ''you heard about him, but you never saw him, like Jimmy Hoffa (lol),'' added Little Joey. Rumour was that Little Joey, a young pup at the time, was the last to see the Hoffa alive. ''if he rung bad again da [Dunkirk] might just end up in the lake, like Hoffa'' he added, seriously.

"I just ain't one of them Charitable fellars,'' said The Cabbie,"they talk about him like is the pope on wheels, and he beat da Imperial douchebag in the da Withers,'' he added.

So, to get it all straight, The Cabbie liked the Zito's, Miner's Escape and Brave Victory. Little Joey the Barber, he like Charitable man, as did Fritzie, and they all hated Mine That Bird, and the rest of the crew.

In our last segment of Wiseguys Takes, the wiseguys went 0 for 6 in the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial. "if it looks like a good thin', and runs like a good thin', it ain't a good thin', said The Cabbie warning us on the Charitable Man's vast popularity. "I ain't so bad myself, you know, I can pick a winner or too-or trees, when the moon is right!'' he added.

You can find these nice fellars at the mudbug, trackside, in downtown Chicago. They have their own personal stools at the back bar. I spent the 2002 Breeders Cup day there, and without them three around, who were at the track freezing them cogliones off, I would have to say it was a good, relaxing day, because nobody got stabbed. Only in Chicaga.

Let's see how many feathers I can ruffle here! Who's keeping score? Racingwithbruno Blog newest nuisance!

The Triple Crown swallowed up another victim after the Preakness.

Friesan Fire had major injuries to both legs (It's not like we didn't tell you since watching him train at Churchill ~ and you know our professional opinion of the trainer), and having have to be laid up for more time than one may be able to count. My guess is that Friesan Fire will never race again.

You can read it yourself, Matt Hegarty's Friesan Fire out several months .

The list from this year's triple crown M.A.S.H unit is a list of who's who:

The Pamplemousse (Hurt at Santa Anita) Square Eddie (Cracked shins at Churchill Downs ~Pre-existing condition?) Old Fashioned (Cracked knee ~Retired~ Oaklawn Friesan Fire (both front legs severely injured ~ Derby & Preakness ~Trained at Churchill) Win Willy (Injury while training at Churchill Downs) I Want Revenge (Injured at Churchill Downs) Quality Road (Quarter Crack out of the Florida Derby) and who else? C'mon remind me, folks, I am getting old.

So, let's see, seven top colts out and five of the seven are out for the year at least. So, you talk about carnage. Safety alliance my rear patootie. This was like Little Big Horn, but with survivors.

Let's not forget, Kitty in the Bag, the two-year-old in the Gary Stute barn, who ran in the Juvenile stakes on Thursday, April 30, who broke down behind, and she may never make it back. Strawberry Kiss, who died in a freak training accident at Churchill Downs, derby week. Add Vineyard Havern and Midshipman, who were the best two colts at time of the Breeders Cup and Eclipse award voting never saw the shores of America, so far in 2009, after being sent to the middle east, Dubai.

We take so much criticism for the synthetic mandate and as we can see we had very few injured horses in this triple crown 2009. We knock this track and that track, except the pro-ride, I think it sucks, but who cares what I think. I love Santa Anita, but that's another issue all together. Maybe the new owners can find some dirt somewhere. New Santa Anita slogan? Got Dirt?

It's quite simple, they, synthetics in California, do help and drastically cut down major injuries. I know some need statistic, numbers, and figures. I don't! I lived it in Kentucky. Saw it with my own two eyes. After all horses are not statistics they are breathing, living, beautiful creatures, who run their heart out for our enjoyment.

Back to the synthetic versus dirt quandary, mathematically, if we had the horse population and traffic the east coast is so fortunate to have we would be the Mecca horse racing capital of the world. Then, all we would need is a little attitude adjustment in the way we do business and voila, piece of cake!



Absolutes!

If there is a lesson to be learned from this year's Triple Crown it is has to be 'the absolutes''.

We all saw the Preakness and the greatness of Rachel Alexandra, the determination and athleticism of Mine That Bird, and the heart of Musket Man. Mine That Bird proved that he was no fluke and in fact, he is a very good horse. "That little horse [Mine That Bird } got in so much traffic,'' Mike Smith said in an All Access TVG Special at Hollywood Park on Sunday, "you know, I had to kind of wait while she was getting away [Rachel Alexandra],'' Mike recalled, "I think if I could have gotten to keep that momentum, I think, he could have got her'', in reference to his trip aboard the Derby winner in the Preakness. "He ran big anyway, he didn't show he was just a ole' fluke,' he told Trainer Kathy Walsh in the paddock, "He is a neat little son of gun'' added Mike, "when you asked that little guy he gets it now, he jumps a long way for a little horse.'' Kathy Walsh, a stalwart trainer with a lofty win percentage asked out loud,"I wonder why they waited so long to rate him?'' ''now you get him back out of there let others do all the dirty work,'' responded Mike, "you wonder how many other horses are that way? Walsh asked, "a bunch of them, probably, there's no telling.'' responded Mike.

I was really struck by the impromptu discussion live on TVG between Mike and Kathy, two stalwarts in the industry from the horsewoman and rider perspective.

Kathy brought up a great question when she thought aloud to herself ''you wonder how many other horses are that way,'' referring to Mine That Bird's incredible improvement with a mere running style adjustment.

I can tell you with my experience with horsemen, riders and my own horses here in Southern California that there is on a daily basis an ''absolute'' opinion made on horses without sufficient knowledge on the horse. the old adage of ''they make liars out of you'' falls on deaf ears frequently.

For example, trainer gets a new horse looks it in the stall and makes a snap decision that the horse needs to run for $8,000. He even mouths off to the owner that the horse is no good and has now a pre-conceived notion of that horse. He has made up his mind on the horse, in the stall. Last I checked they don't run in the stall.

Two days later, the horse is on the track and it's "I may have been harsh, she looked real good out there this morning,'' the trainer recants his opinion from two days earlier. True story.

''Absolutes'' like in the case of Mine That Bird prior to the Derby, "He doesn't belong, or he's not good enough, he's overmatched, etc'' were snap judgements that hindered our own intrinsic ability of judging horseflesh. I was quite guilty of that. I didn't see it. I made the same snap decision the trainer above did. I was brought back to reality real quick. I will try my damndest to not underestimate a horse. They can make huge fools out of you.

Obviously, the connections of Mine that Bird need to be commended for not making those 'absolute' judgements. They, actually, had a different feeling. Despite what the horse had done at the track, the trainer, Chip Wooley, made the observation that the colt needed to be taken back, settled and allowed to make run. What if it would have been a trainer here in California, without naming names I can confidently tell you that 95% of the trainers here would have dropped to win and totally discounted the horse chances, let alone just a running style adjustment. (I.E. Lava Man?)

Mike Mitchell showed his humble personality when he commented on Charismatic after his 1999 Derby and Preakness wins for D. Wayne Lukas, who had actually run Charismatic for a claiming price earlier in the colt's career, "I thought about dropping on him [a claim slip],'' he said, '' but, I probably would have just run him back for a price, too.'' Pretty candid from a trainer that has made a career from dropping on 'mistakes' from other barns.'' I say.

This is not a knock on trainers but, in general, their mentality is flawed. The Swine Flu epidemic is on the news, but the only epidemic on the racetrack is ''the drop, drop, drop, till you drop''.

"XXXXXX loves to claim for $32,000 and run for $12,500 so he can gamble,'' said one owner. I really don't know the extent of that virus going around, but in general, that's true for a few trainers.

How do trainers make a living? By purse money and little day money on the side.

Trainers make money from clients paying their bills and winning purse monies. In this economic trend some trainers are having a hard time paying their feed bills, owners are having a hard time paying their training bills and vet bills. "We are struggling, even the good customers are paying late,'' said the head CPA of a major perennial top 5 racing stable here is California.

So, how does that effect the trainer and the condition book? more trainers are apt to take the $50,000 horse and running for $32,000. Voila, instant income.

Last summer Jeff Mullins ran a Turf Paradise straight maiden, Stettler, for maiden-claiming price. The horse crushed by open lengths. After the race Mullins was asked if the horse was worth losing, he responded, ''that's what happens when you a run a $50,000 horse for $32,000.''

You see it in the claims. Claimed for $32,000 returns for $25,000. The trainer has to make his money, and at first chance he will recite ''the drop in class'' as the all box to a horses woes or lack of success. Again, absolutes. Absolutes like a drop in class hurts the owners of these horses. It's what have you done for me lately and what can you do for me now?

Seabiscuit was stereotyped and sold. Charismatic, Mine That Bird all in the same boat. mine That Bird also ran for a claiming price, in Canada. Seattle Slew, Real Quiet, Sunday Silence, I Want Revenge, and thousands of other notable horses were bought or did not sell for under $100,000 at auctions. Secretariat was the result of a loss of a coin flip. He was losers prize! In the minds of those who passed on those horses, 'they're just plow horses!"

In my personal experiences I have come across too many absolutes and not enough horsemanship. Horses are being typecast or categorized. Attention to detail goes to the barns that win at a high percentage. The 10% trainers aren't working hard enough at the little things, the small difference makers, like the automated walker for horses. Some horses hate that walker, and need a human being. The resentment from being on that machine and going around and around in circle will certainly reflect on the attitude on the racetrack. Even smaller things make the different like teeth, feet, etc. It's the small things that make a barn win 20% and not how fast you work or how big of check you made out to a horse auction. From ten thousand to million dollar babies they are only as good as the attention they get. One small thing is neglected your horse depreciates in value on the track.

The lack of attention to details shows more in the claiming game. The top trainers here in California, Doug O'Neill, Jeff Mullins, Mike Mitchell, or John Sadler have made career changing claims for some horses by simply claiming them from lessor shed~rows with a meek eye to detail.

Jeff Mullins picked up my Red Redding back in 2007. He threw the shank over his own shoulder and walked down two shed~rows to pick up the horse. "wow!" he exclaimed as he saw the horse in his stall. He put the shank on him and walked him back. Once in the Mullins shedrow and safely in his new home, Red Redding was examined by Mullins. Jeff opened the gelding's mouth and felt the back of the mouth, teeth, etc. He walked all the way around the horse, checked his feet, and exited the stall. How many trainers put their hand all the way down a horse's mouth that they just picked up. Jeff made no absolutes, and immediately went to work on finding out what the horse was all about. He didn't walk over the horse said 'he needs to run for $8,000.'' On the flip side, and not to pick on Mullins but he was a bit dissatisfied when a filly like Sweeter Still got in his shedrow. Frank Lyons bought the filly in Ireland and sent her to the states and to Jeff Mullins barn. "He called me when he got her and said to me 'what did you do'? '' said Lyons laughing. The filly had lost a ton of weight and was as big as a Shetland pony, but once she got on the track and worked Mullins adjusted his thinking. "He called me one day and asked me about a Grade 3 in New York,'' recalled Lyons, "for what horse?" he asked. "Sweeter Still'' Mullins said. Obviously, the size, and her first impression was not an absolute for him. He let the horse speak for himself.

I, as a horse owner, have to delicately balance my partners, my horses and my trainer. If you infuse your trainer with opinions or thoughts, you are meddling and not letting them do their job. Fair enough, but there are no absolutes in this industry so, who is to say they will train for me tomorrow, if, my horses and my partners, best interest is not taken into account. I will not run a $200,000 horse for $40,000, unless I am sure that is the best scenario for all involved.

Handicappers are not immune from absolutes. Horseplayers who look at past performances make comments like "He needs the lead'', or ''he needs to pace to run at'', or ''this trainer can't fire with a first time starter, or have a horse cranked first out off the layoff.'' All those are absolutes without margin for error. Those statements are highlighted by the key words, 'need, or can't' and are just an extension of a closed minded opinion.

Opinions are supposed to be based on experiences but are simply false beliefs or regurgitated myths.

"It's tougher running against older horses in May or June,'' told me one trainer, I went home and look at the data from last year at this time and the three-year-olds more than then held their own against elders in May and June. "I still think it's easier against three year olds,'' the trainer responded despite being told of the data and facts. "I guess my trainer doesn't want to hear the facts,'' I told my partners. Again another absolute without basis. The word 'tougher' or 'easier' is based on actually what? Most likely prior failures.

Handicappers are the worst at absolutes. "He can't win!~", or ''He faced nobody!". You hear that daily. The nobody claim is interesting. I wouldn't mind dropping a claim slip on nobody. He raced against some good horses. Rachel Alexandra 'beat nobody, in a weak field in the Oaks'. Yet, she wins the Preakness. Big Brown beat nobody going in the Derby last year, yet he won the Derby. There are thousands of examples.

Absolutes absolutely kill you and your chances for success. Having an open mind and going day to day is the best way to approach this industry. In my personal life, I will not put up with people we hire to make absolute statements before all the data is in. You may think the horse is worth $8,000 when they ship in from the farm, or have to need throat-flap surgery to correct a breathing problem, but keep your 'absolutes' to yourself. Just ask Mine That Bird, Seabiscuit, Charismatic, and Midnight Lute (who had only 60% of air available, after surgery, yet was one of the best sprinters in the world for two years in a row).

The only absolute I want to hear about is the one in my drink and I need one right now~!

Preakness and other scattered jargon blog

I have been probed about a note or two on the Preakness and some scattered jargon.

First of all, I have always been the type that doesn't follow the trends or the masses. There is a widespread belief that Friesan Fire will step up and run well after that debacle in the Derby. My point is that Friesan Fire was supposed to be this monster-off-track-horse and yet he didn't raise a hoof and in fact was beaten by a country mile in the Derby. According to his trainer he came out of it all bruised up, grabbing a quarter in the process. Jones, his trainer, made the morbid comment of ''if there was blood on the track it was his.'' After Eight Belles last year you'd think Larry Jones wouldn't be so graphic in his description of the colt's trip and new battle scars.

Freisan Fire came in to the Derby with a 57.4 work at Churchill Downs. We watched the work and he looked like the wheels were going to come off in the lane after a split of 33.4. He didn't look good doing it despite the impressive time.

In my outlook on the Derby experience I found that there is a widespread respect for Larry Jones. One person actually suggested that "if it had been Mullins who trained Eight Belles he would have been vilified and banned, but Larry Jones, they would throw him a party to cheer him up". There is some truth in the cynical comment. Larry Jones can't do no wrong. Mullins can't do no right. Larry Jones had Old Fashioned go wrong in the Arkansas Derby and had to be retired due to a severe knee injury, however, we felt that no one pushed the envelope and tried to inquire when that injury had actually shown up. Win Willy, a 56-1 shot, handed Old Fashioned the first loss of his career in the Rebel, and if the replay is watched carefully, and by a trained eye, you can see Old Fashioned lugging in badly at the top the turn and through the stretch run. There was enough for a follow-up but no one dared to tackle, one because they don't know, and two, it's Larry Jones.

In fact, as far as the bias is concerned one member of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission I met in Kentucky on Derby day looked at me and immediately said ''That trainer of yours [Jeff Mullins] is a disgrace and should be banned!". This unsolicited outburst can be construed as of the collective feelings of the Racing Commission and the Kentucky racing industry. I thought it was harsh. However, as for Larry Jones, nothing was brought up or even discussed about Eight Belles and how she had worked prior to the Derby last year, or how is it that a huge person like Larry Jones can consciously gallop his own horses. Put him on the scale I would say 185 to 190 and over if you push me into an over and under? {Me thinks Larry could use The Nutristems Weight Loss Program featuring Larry The Cable Guy}

We noted it on this site and in my reports that it had taken Larry Jones and his pony sprinting down the Churchill Downs to get her to break away and work in 2008. She finished up down the lane ''unfocused'', and ''unsure'' of herself late in my notes. She worked in the 58 and change that morning in her final work before her ill fated Derby work. So, fast forward, it is our speculation that is business as usual for Jones to work any of his horses 58 and change or faster a few days before the race. Just as Mel or Gary Stute can blow out a horse the day before or even the day of in 22 and change down the lane.

Friesan Fire worked a week after the Derby, after a miraculous recovery from the grabbed quarter, who supposedly had bled all over the Churchill track a week earlier, in 58 and change. History will tell us it doesn't mean anything:

Eight Belles in 58 and change before the Derby. Finished second ~ broke down. Old Fashioned 100 and change on a slower track in Oaklawn before defeats in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, and retired due to a knee injury. Friesan Fire, 57.4 inside of a week before the Derby, next to last place finish despite alleged trouble, and injuries sustained during the running of the race.

Is there a pattern here? Yes! Yes! Yes!

Now Friesan Fire works fast again a week after the Derby and a week before the Preakness. He can sure win, but it's not because he worked fast. This is a Jones pattern.

Am I fan of Larry Jones? Has he ever done wrong to me? No, but isn't it my job to question or probe?

He seems like a nice fellar, nice ten gallon hats, and nice suds, and suits, and he is sure good in front of the cameras with that Pat Boone, ''oh shucks'' twang and smile. Makes me feel like sparking my Hulk Hogan Ultimate Grill grill and throw down some Jimmy Dean sausages, or juice up my Turk and Surf for some special eating.

He is a good ole boy and he has been a stalwart the last few years in the Mid and South West. He has won some of the biggest races back there. He is the cowboy version of Bobby Frankel back there. Nobody says any bad thing about Bobby out here? Forget about it.

For my money, not thanks on Friesan Fire. If you watch closely and again no one has asked Jones this question: Why the blinkers with the 'outside cup?'. An outside cup blinker is used for horses that lug out. If you watch the Louisiana Derby he was lugging out all the way down the lane. No thanks, pass at a short price.

Rachel Alexandra is a beast, but some say ''she has to bounce'. Why?

Why is it after every big race a bounce is forecast. You hear 'she ran too fast', or 'she topped out', but if you push these experts and they can't tell you why a horse is going to bounce other than just what the numbers are and the probabilities of a reaction.

The art of watching horses from an horseman's view is lost. We are a numerically driven industry. Percentages, stats and figures. Speed figures are subjective as we saw the Beyer boys take a number in the Florida Derby and massage it into a number they were comfortable with, not what the actual formula said, but what they were comfortable with. Dunkirk showed that number was fictitious along with Theregoesjojo and any other also ran from the Florida Derby.

It all reminds me of the scene in Titanic. After dinner, all the men get up from the table and remove themselves to the 'smoking room', Rose tells Jack ''now they go to the smoking room and smoke their cigars, drink cognac and pat each other on the back on being masters of the universe'.

Rachel is the real deal and she will be on the engine and on the lead in the Preakness and I can tell you with certainty, just like the Belmont when two jockeys ganged up on Smarty Jones, and there was Birdstone beating a softened Smarty, I foresee some jockeys going right after the filly early and push her to go too fast, too soon. The thought of entering horses to keep her out backfired in the faces of the Mark Allen, Mine That Bird camp, and Ahmed Zayat, Pioneerof the Nile camp. By the way, what was Allen's father in trouble for in Alaska, something about alleged bribery? and he called Zayat to discuss the possibility of entering horses to keep the filly out........something's never change. I foresee an on-track ensemble of speed to shove Rachel into suicidal pace, a perfect storm for Mine That Bird to come rolling from the back of the pack? Wait a minute, though, wasn't Mine That Bird last in the Derby because of a bad start. what if he breaks sharply and is on top of the pace? What if?

A horse that might just run huge is Musket Man. How many bad races has that horse run? None! He is a trier and he might get a softened Rachel, and a out of place Mine That Bird. Pioneerof the Nile will get a true dirt track and that should bode well for him. Papa Clem will run on anything, and he did run very well in the Derby. He has a shot, too. The 2-3-4 finishers in the Derby is my exacta and trifecta box. Maybe throw one ticket with Rachel on top. I think she wins or she finishes off the board.

To recap here is the top 9 questions heading into Preaknes:


1.)Am I fan of Larry Jones?


2.)Has he ever done wrong to me?


3.)Isn't it my job to question or probe? {I like to probe with my Scoop N Grind}


4.)Why the blinkers with the 'outside cup? {Seriously, its not a X-mas Ornament}


5.)Put him [Larry Jones]on the scale I would say 185 to 190 and over if you push me into an over and under? {I still say Nutrisytems featuring Larry The Cable Guy}


6.)Rachel Alexandra is a beast, but some say ''she has to bounce'. Why? {the good ole answer would be ''because we always did it this way"}


7.)By the way, what was Allen's father in trouble for in Alaska, something about alleged bribery?


8.)I foresee an on-track ensemble of speed to shove Rachel into suicidal pace, a perfect storm for Mine That Bird to come rolling from the back of the pack? {refer to Mark Allen}

9.)Wasn't Mine That Bird last in the Derby because of a bad start. what if he breaks sharply and is on top of the pace? (Mike Smith might just break him slowly, ala Eddie Delahoussaye}

10.)"They'll know me now, won't they?" {Chip Wooley after a celebratory dinner at the Waffle House}

So now that I have offended and turned Kentucky after me I am sure I will have a posse tracking me down. No worries I am carrying my Veloxor Professional Pepper Spray. "I ain't goin' down without a fight!" Those be General Custers last word at Little Big Horn.



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